Welcome to The Not Top Secret Podcast, your portal into the enigmatic world of conspiracy theories, cover-ups, UFOs, unexplained mysteries, and the bizarre. In this thought-provoking blog, we delve deep into NASA's groundbreaking report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs), which has set the stage for a new era in our understanding of the unexplained. In recent years, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), commonly referred to as UFOs, have garnered significant attention from the public and the scientific community. The mystery surrounding these aerial objects has raised questions about their nature, origin, and potential implications. NASA, an agency renowned for its rigorous scientific approach to understanding various phenomena, has been questioned about whether it could apply its expertise to the study of UAP. In this blog, we explore the feasibility of NASA's involvement in UAP research and outline the essential elements required for a scientific approach.
NASA's Conclusive Statement:
In a historic move, NASA, renowned for its missions to the far reaches of our universe, turned its gaze back to Earth and its skies. Their 33-page report resounds with a statement that challenges long-held beliefs: "At this point, there is no reason to conclude that existing UAP reports have an extraterrestrial source." This bold assertion reverberated through the UFO community, shaking the foundations of those who had long speculated about alien encounters.
The Stigma Surrounding UAP Reporting
A noteworthy revelation in the report is the acknowledgment of the stigma attached to reporting UAP sightings. NASA voiced concerns that this societal stigma has been a barrier to effective data collection and analysis. By actively participating in UAP research, NASA aims to destigmatize the reporting process, with the ultimate goal of encouraging more credible reports from both professionals and the general public.
The Scientific Approach
NASA's report stressed the importance of adhering to the scientific method in the quest to understand UAPs. It invoked the wisdom of Sherlock Holmes: "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth." In this spirit, NASA committed to playing a "prominent role" in a comprehensive, evidence-based approach to studying UAPs.
The Challenge of UAP Data
NASA, renowned for collecting vast amounts of data through highly calibrated instruments across various Earth environments and domains, serves as a cornerstone for rigorous scientific research. However, when applying the same scientific methodology to UAP, several key challenges become apparent. Before the scientific method can be employed to unravel an unusual phenomenon, the relevant data must meet rigorous data-driven standards. Over time, numerous standards have been established, including the FAIR data principle, which encompasses Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability.
UAP data rarely, if ever, undergo collection with the explicit intention of comprehending the phenomenon. Instead, they tend to emerge as incidental observations. Frequently, UAP sightings occur through instruments or sensors that were not designed or calibrated for detecting anomalous objects or accurately defining their movement parameters. Metadata, encompassing sensor specifications, manufacturer details, noise characteristics, acquisition timestamps, instrument sensitivity, and data storage specifics like bit-depth, sensor location, temperature conditions, exposure characteristics, and more, are often missing, making calibration and comprehensive context understanding challenging. Consequently, numerous unresolved UAP reports lack sufficient information, even if accompanied by photographic or videographic evidence. Existing UAP observations are suboptimal for in-depth scientific analysis due to these deficiencies.
Furthermore, a significant portion of the data collected by military sensors or intelligence satellites is classified, primarily due to the risk of exposing U.S. technical capabilities to adversaries rather than the content of the images themselves. While crucial for national security, classified data contributes to the aura of enigma and conspiracy surrounding UAP, acting as a barrier to scientific inquiry. For many events, the data and metadata do not permit a conclusive determination of the UAP's size, motion, or nature. However, when such information is available, as seen in the "GoFast" UAP video, the apparent anomalous behavior of the UAP can often be explained by the motion of the sensor platform.
In stark contrast, NASA conducts observations using meticulously calibrated instruments meticulously designed for specific purposes. This approach allows NASA to embrace the scientific method effectively, prioritizing reproducibility and the falsifiability of hypotheses. In the scientific method, data must support measurements capable of eliminating particular explanations or interpretations, ultimately leading to the rejection of a hypothesis. For UAP, the null hypothesis is that these phenomena exhibit characteristics consistent with known natural or technological causes. While eyewitness reports hold value, they alone cannot support repeatable, reproducible analysis due to inherent limitations such as cognitive biases and errors.
Collecting New Data
A scientific investigation into UAP necessitates access to the instrumental characteristics vital for capturing UAP data effectively. This information should include lab-measured error rates of sensors routinely employed by both civilian and military aircraft, models for optical phenomena like "ghosting" due to the scattering of solar and lunar glints within camera systems, sources of noise intrinsic to the sensors themselves, and more. Multisensor platforms that record an object's motion, shape (imaging data), color (multispectra or hyperspectral data), and other attributes are essential for providing a comprehensive picture of a UAP event.
Crowdsourcing for UAP Reports
To bridge these gaps, NASA recommended exploring the potential of crowdsourcing as a means to gather UAP reports from the public.
Crowd-sourced observations standardized through open-source smartphone apps present a promising avenue for gathering valuable metadata. NASA, in collaboration with relevant organizations, could facilitate the collection of such data while adhering to data quality and consistency standards. NASA's wealth of experience in citizen science projects positions it well to minimize data noise, systematic errors, and cognitive biases associated with human-observed events. Once an anomalous signal is identified, the establishment of a new discovery infrastructure may be necessary for full characterization.
Public Engagement and Collaboration
Public engagement was recognized as vital, with NASA's involvement already contributing to the reduction of stigma associated with reporting. Beyond this, the report advocated for the leveraging of the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) for commercial pilot UAP reporting, potentially enhancing future air traffic management systems. Additionally, the report suggested enhanced collaboration with the U.S. commercial remote-sensing industry, which boasts powerful constellations of high-resolution Earth-observing satellites.
Data Curation and Integration
The lack of a standardized federal system for civilian UAP reports poses a considerable challenge. While the Department of Defense (DoD) is in the process of establishing mechanisms for military UAP reports, civilian reports lack uniformity in terms of collection, processing, and curation. Integrating NASA's open, civilian dataset with the DoD's more focused information will require a coordinated effort. Additionally, data integration opportunities exist with other agencies like NOAA, which operates the NEXRAD Doppler radar network and geostationary satellites, offering a means to distinguish interesting objects from atmospheric clutter.
Commercial remote sensing systems, particularly high-resolution satellite constellations, could serve as another source of high-quality UAP-relevant data. However, integrating anomalous events across platforms, including radar data and commercial downward-looking satellites, poses a resource-intensive challenge. In addition to integration, data curation is equally crucial. Currently, the study of a single UAP event involves manual data retrieval due to the poor organization of data, rendering automation impractical. Organized data repositories are a necessity to enable systematic, scientific UAP study. NASA's extensive experience in data calibration, cleaning, curation, management, and public accessibility positions it ideally to establish curated data repositories for UAP research.
These repositories could encompass data from NASA assets suitable for UAP studies and crowd-sourced data from NASA-related platforms. Curated public repositories of UAP data would foster data mining by both scientists and citizen scientists, contributing to a more transparent research landscape. Multiple independent teams working on solving the scientific puzzles presented by UAP data would add a layer of verification, ensuring robustness in the research process.
Analyzing UAP Data
Effective analysis of UAP data hinges on the ability to separate signals from unrelated background noise or clutter. Scientists often seek areas with minimal background noise to detect rare and unusual events successfully.
One strategy to achieve this is to search for UAP in regions with low background noise. For instance, neutrino experiments often occur underground, where most particles cannot reach due to Earth's absorption. Similarly, meteorite hunters find success in Antarctica, where any rock found on top of a glacier is considered interesting. However, identifying areas of low background noise in airspace, given the prevalence of human aircraft, drones, balloons, and other objects, presents a challenge. Sparse, minimally occupied airspaces, such as those over the South Pole, might offer reduced background noise for UAP searches, but it remains uncertain whether this would exclude their presence or if environmental phenomena could still contribute to noise.
An alternative strategy involves examining historical astronomical plates captured before 1959, the year of Sputnik's launch. However, verifying the nature of any unusual findings within these historical records could prove difficult due to potential incompleteness, loss, inaccessibility, lack of reproducibility, and complexity in cross-referencing.
Modern analytical techniques have significantly improved the ability to detect extremely rare signals within a sea of clutter. Machine learning and AI have emerged as potent tools for identifying rare events, from discovering the Higgs Boson at the Large Hadron Collider to detecting rare cancer types and spotting fraudulent credit card charges. While machine learning and AI can play a role in UAP study, the choice of methodologies hinges on the nature of the data. NASA could leverage its influence to encourage an extensive review of existing methods for anomaly detection within the context of multidisciplinary conferences, workshops, and data challenges involving mock datasets.
Observations Beyond Earth's Atmosphere
Beyond the terrestrial realm, NASA has a long-standing interest in the search for life beyond Earth. The fields of astrobiology and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) have focused on developing techniques and methods for identifying potential signs of life in the cosmos. These endeavors require the identification of anomalous signatures, which may suggest the presence of life or even advanced technology. The scientific communities supported by NASA have extensive experience in discerning whether observations initially appearing extraordinary can be justified by known phenomena or if they unveil previously undetected biological or technological activity.
Many of NASA's scientific missions are dedicated to addressing the question of whether life exists elsewhere in the universe. These missions include endeavors to detect biosignatures on celestial bodies like Mars or the icy moons of Jupiter and Saturn, as well as in the atmospheres of exoplanets. The quest to identify signs of alien technology represents a natural extension of these efforts. In 2017, the concept of "technosignatures" was introduced to encompass a wide range of detectable technologies that could indicate the presence of an advanced civilization, analogous to how biosignatures indicate biology.
NASA has historically supported searches for radio technosignatures and conducted studies on potential atmospheric technosignatures on exoplanets. It has also participated in surveys for the waste heat generated by hypothetical Dyson spheres using existing infrared data. These initiatives yield valuable astrophysical data, regardless of whether they identify technosignatures.
Furthermore, within our solar system, there are opportunities to expand technosignature searches with minimal additional costs. NASA's active program of detecting objects within the solar neighborhood could be leveraged to search for objects with anomalous motion or trajectories. These searches might entail examining objects with unusual light curves, acceleration patterns, spectral signatures, or other distinctive anomalies.
While current UAP reports do not inherently suggest an extraterrestrial source, acknowledging this possibility would require recognizing that these objects would have traversed our solar system to reach Earth. Thus, the intellectual continuum extends from extrasolar technosignatures to solar system SETI and potential unknown alien technology operating within Earth's atmosphere. The plausibility of any of these scenarios implies the plausibility of all, making the comprehensive study of these possibilities a compelling scientific pursuit.
NASA's Expertise and Contribution
The report concluded by underscoring NASA's unique position and expertise, emphasizing the agency's ability to contribute significantly to the systematic study of UAPs. It recommended the utilization of Earth-observing assets to probe local environmental conditions associated with UAP sightings initially detected by other means. NASA's proficiency in multispectral and hyperspectral data analysis, coupled with artificial intelligence and machine learning, was identified as pivotal in comprehensive UAP detection campaigns.
Exploring the realm of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena demands a systematic and data-driven approach. NASA, as an institution renowned for its commitment to rigorous scientific principles and data analysis, is well-suited to contribute to this endeavor. The challenges posed by UAP data collection, curation, and integration are substantial, but they can be overcome through collaboration and leveraging NASA's experience in data management. Analyzing UAP data, searching for anomalous signals amid background noise, and employing advanced techniques like machine learning require careful consideration.
Furthermore, the exploration of technosignatures and the potential for advanced civilizations in our cosmic neighborhood is an extension of NASA's ongoing efforts in astrobiology and SETI. By expanding its scope to include the search for extraterrestrial technology, NASA can continue to push the boundaries of scientific discovery. While current UAP reports do not definitively suggest an extraterrestrial origin, they prompt us to consider the broader implications of our quest for understanding the cosmos. NASA's involvement in this field could be instrumental in advancing our knowledge of both earthly and extraterrestrial phenomena, providing new insights into the mysteries of our universe.
In conclusion, applying a scientific approach to UAP research necessitates overcoming data challenges, standardizing reporting mechanisms, and leveraging NASA's expertise in data collection, curation, and analysis. While many questions about UAP persist, a systematic, scientific inquiry may provide answers and advance our understanding of these intriguing phenomena. NASA's involvement in such research could contribute to unraveling the mysteries of UAP and, in a broader context, the search for life beyond our planet.